iPad Prelaunch Thoughts

It has a very limited suite of applications. Just about everything you can do on it, you can do on today's smartphones or computers. The operating system is closed and Apple will only allow what it wants to be installed on the device. It doesn't have a physical keyboard. It's too expensive for what you get--there are many alternatives for less money.

Talking about the iPad? No, these are the statements made about the iPhone prior to its launch. Indeed, many analysts believed Apple was setting itself up for failure by declaring that the company would capture 1% of the smartphone market within 18 months. As they say, the rest is history.

The lesson to be learned from this is to never underestimate Apple. How popular will the iPad be? No one knows--not even Apple. Keep in mind, the iPhone's least used application is the phone. The iPhone ushered into the market the first truly portable omni-communications device. I will predict the iPad will accomplish no less.

Sure, it may take two or three generations of the machine. But remember, in Internet time you are only talkining 24-36 months. Remember, the iPod did not exist eight years ago and the iPhone did not exist three years ago. Within that time frame, Apple will have probably doubled the storage capacity, doubled the processing speed, added significantly to the battery life, added a camera (front-facing for video chats), slightly increased the screen size, improved the screen resolution, all without making it any heavier. You will get all this at the same or less cost. Add to this reality, virtually every major computer maker (and many a wireless phone maker) will have a similar competing knockoff. The iPad is going to fail--hardly.

With all that said, the true innovation and success of the iPad will rest with those who made the iPhone successful--the gazillions of iPad application developers. This hearty group will find ways to use the iPad that even Steve Jobs did not imagine. They will be the device of choice in schools because they are small and can carry a student's books much easier than a backpack. They will be data collection devices for students, scientists, and engineers. They will be the real estate agent's most prized possession allowing instant access to neighborhood demographics, comparison house prices, and virtual house walk-throughs. They will be the nurse and doctor's link to patient records and information input. They will be the insurance agent's instrument of choice for both sales and claims input. They will become a "world-computer," because of the relatively small size, low energy demands, long battery life, and storage capacity. Oh, and they will be a great personal entertainment device.

This success is not dependent on Apple. It is dependent on the application developers who will see all the possibilities of the device. You see, that is what most people missed about the iPhone--it is the applications that will sell the device.

[Posted with iBlogger from my iPhone]

iPad Naysayers

I find it interesting the amount of disappointent many people have expressed about the forthcoming iPad digital tablet. The interesting part is the people expressing the disappointment, not the disappointment itself. Let me explain.

There are and always will be technophobes and Luddites who will have nothing good to say about any new technological widget. You know the ones, they tell how much they hate technology because they don't have phones or computers to send you their concern. These aren't the people who surprised me.

I'm talking about the people such as Bill Gates. He should know better. His concern is that the iPad does not have a physical keyboard or stylus input. This is from the guy who helped change computing from an enterprise to a personal activity. Bill, you are dating yourself. You're becoming a modern day Luddite. You and Steve Ballmer--iPod what's it good for; iTunes who is going to buy music at $.99 a song; and iPhone, no keys, no success. You guys just don't get it.

iPad is going to be a success for the simple reason that people don't know what it's good for. It is the rebirth of the hobbiest home computer. People will play with it and start using it for things that were never envisioned. Just look at the App Store. Who envisioned the iPhone as an important geology repository and reference tool? Who envisioned it as a news reporting tool completed with video editing capabilities?

Getting away from Apple for a moment, look at Twitter: Who envisioned it as a political tool for change? Who envisioned it as a live stream news feed?

Take YouTube. Who envisioned it as a stand-alone video entertainment service rather than an amateur video posting service? Who envisioned it as a political messaging tool? Who envisioned it as an important video news source?

Needless to say, the iPad will be hugely successful and it will be successful for reasons other than those Steve Jobs and his imagination shop originally intended. As Om Malik noted, the iPad is a blank slate limited only by our imaginations.

What say you?

[Posted with iBlogger from my iPhone]

The Apple iPhone Software Roadmap

As you might guess, the blogs are buzzing with the news that the SDK along with a number of enterprise enhancements to the iPhone will be available in June. To recap, the iPhone will natively support Microsoft Exchange Push "everything" (mail, calendar, contacts). Also supporting the enterprise IT organization will be the capability to remotely configure iPhones to a standard enterprise template, the ability to securely communicate using Cisco's VPN, and the ability to remotely wipe the iPhone in case it is lost, stolen, or an employee should leave the company. Also buried in the presentation was the announcement that the June iPhone software update--iPhone 2.0-- will provide parental controls that can be set to restrict access applications such as the Safari browser. Finally, the SDK-developed applications will be available exclusively through a new AppStore that will enable the user to wirelessly download and install the applications.

Most of the buzz is about the enterprise and SDK features, operation, and availability. However, what I found to be the most interesting was a discussion by John Doerr of the venture capital organization Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers (KPCB) announcing the formation of "iFund" a $100 million investment fund for start-up organizations specifically focused on the development of iPhone applications. The iFund opens up a vast applications pipeline supporting the iPhone that will enable the iPhone to quickly capture market both from consumer applications such as games, but also commercial applications supporting a variety of enterprise needs. With the combination of the SDK being made available in beta to a large number of developers today; making the final SDK widely available in June; providing an application distribution approach mirroring the iTunes Store; engaging name companies including Electronic Arts, Sega, Salesforce.com, and others to develop enterprise and gaming content; and KPCB fronting $100 million in seed money for iPhone application development, the stage is set for the iPhone to challenge RIM, Palm, and the numerous Windows Mobile devices on both the enterprise and the consumer front.

This alone gives the existing iPhone legs well into the remainder of the year. However, I expect that on the heels of the SDK release in June, the next generation iPhone with 3G should be hitting the market. The 3G should have at least 32 MB of storage for all those new applications and locally stored content as well as an improved Internet experience. The combination will make the iPhone well positioned for the enterprise.

MacWorld Prediction Accuracy

Okay, I took my guess just like a lot of other people. So how did I do? Let's see:

1. An iPhone 16 Gb. MISSED
2. Early introduction of the SDK along with the announcements of a number of new applications immediately available through iTunes (new release 7.7). MISSED Sort of. There was a new release of iTunes (7.6), but the SDK is now "late February.
3. iPhone email Exchange compatibility. MISSED
4. Update 1.1.3 (or perhaps a 1.2.0) that will incorporate the teasers seen in the leaked video of the release as well as much-needed enhancements. SPOT ON. Indeed, only the things in the leaked video were in the release.
5. Enhancements to the Wi-Fi iTunes store that will enable podcasts and videos to be downloaded wirelessly. MISSED
6. Among the videos that will be available, Apple will announce its agreement to carry movie rentals--they will be available through the Wi-Fi store or iTunes directly to a home machine or a souped-up AppleTV. GOT ALL EXCEPT THE WI-FI ACCESS.
7. Joint announcements by Yahoo!, Google, and perhaps others of significant extensions of their Web sites to accommodate the iPhone format. MISSED
8. Announcement of an agreement enabling extended Wi-Fi iTunes store usage at airports, certain hotel chains, and perhaps additional business establishments. MISSED
9. Joint announcement of the availability of the 3G iPhone along with AT&T's announcement of rapid expansion of its 3G network. MISSED

And the total is: 2 of 7 of 29%. Pitiful, pitiful, pitiful.