iPad Prelaunch Thoughts

It has a very limited suite of applications. Just about everything you can do on it, you can do on today's smartphones or computers. The operating system is closed and Apple will only allow what it wants to be installed on the device. It doesn't have a physical keyboard. It's too expensive for what you get--there are many alternatives for less money.

Talking about the iPad? No, these are the statements made about the iPhone prior to its launch. Indeed, many analysts believed Apple was setting itself up for failure by declaring that the company would capture 1% of the smartphone market within 18 months. As they say, the rest is history.

The lesson to be learned from this is to never underestimate Apple. How popular will the iPad be? No one knows--not even Apple. Keep in mind, the iPhone's least used application is the phone. The iPhone ushered into the market the first truly portable omni-communications device. I will predict the iPad will accomplish no less.

Sure, it may take two or three generations of the machine. But remember, in Internet time you are only talkining 24-36 months. Remember, the iPod did not exist eight years ago and the iPhone did not exist three years ago. Within that time frame, Apple will have probably doubled the storage capacity, doubled the processing speed, added significantly to the battery life, added a camera (front-facing for video chats), slightly increased the screen size, improved the screen resolution, all without making it any heavier. You will get all this at the same or less cost. Add to this reality, virtually every major computer maker (and many a wireless phone maker) will have a similar competing knockoff. The iPad is going to fail--hardly.

With all that said, the true innovation and success of the iPad will rest with those who made the iPhone successful--the gazillions of iPad application developers. This hearty group will find ways to use the iPad that even Steve Jobs did not imagine. They will be the device of choice in schools because they are small and can carry a student's books much easier than a backpack. They will be data collection devices for students, scientists, and engineers. They will be the real estate agent's most prized possession allowing instant access to neighborhood demographics, comparison house prices, and virtual house walk-throughs. They will be the nurse and doctor's link to patient records and information input. They will be the insurance agent's instrument of choice for both sales and claims input. They will become a "world-computer," because of the relatively small size, low energy demands, long battery life, and storage capacity. Oh, and they will be a great personal entertainment device.

This success is not dependent on Apple. It is dependent on the application developers who will see all the possibilities of the device. You see, that is what most people missed about the iPhone--it is the applications that will sell the device.

[Posted with iBlogger from my iPhone]

Verizon and Anything Apple

Verizon may claim to cover more of the United States with their "Red Map" when compared to AT&T's "Blue Map," but looks can be deceiving--especially for Apple users. First, Verizon has a 3G coverage area that arguably covers more cows, sheep, and free range pheasant than AT&T. However, I don't know about you, but my phone calls tend to go to people. Indeed, how many cows carry a cell phone? Verizon might as well be saying we cover more underwater fish than AT&T. Yes, and your point is?

Second, the nice thing about AT&T and the iPhone is "it just works," and that includes on AT&T's 3G network and on their numerous WiFi hotspots across the country. AT&T's 3G network is simply faster than Verizon's (and getting faster as they continue to roll out their 7MBs speed HSPA protocol). Indeed, in many cases, Verizon barely manages to outpace AT&T's EDGE. If you consider that, the Blue Map starts looking very similar to the Red Map.

Third, AT&T's network is designed to allow multiple simultaneous sessions, Verizon's is not. The result is that great Droid phone on Verizon may be able to multitask its heart out, but not if you are trying to make a phone call and surf the Internet. Verizon's network can't do it. While the iPhone can't multitask, it can manage a simultaneous phone call and allow the user to use the Internet (or any other application for that matter).

Fourth, the ancillary benefits of network choice is access to WiFi. Face it, while accessing content over 3G is nice, when you are within range of a WiFi hotspot, it is nice to be able to use it. AT&T provides free access to iPhone users for all their WiFi hotspots nationwide. This allows the user to have WiFi speeds at Starbucks, McDonald's, various bookstores and numerous other locations--free and it just works. Verizon offers free WiFi access to their users of their FiOS high-speed Internet service. Again, you can use any of their many hotspots, including many of the same Starbucks. So, as an iPhone user and a Verizon FiOS user, you would think I have the best of both worlds. But the truth lies in the fine print. Verizon doesn't support the iPhone, ...or the iPad, ... or virtually anything Apple. Could this be the reason Apple doesn't do business with Verizon? It sure can't help the conversation.

While Verizon does provide access to its hotspots, the fine print notes that, "Verizon Wi-Fi currently supports: Windows XP (32-bit only), Vista, and Windows 7." That's right, Verizon does not support ANY Apple operating system (or any UNIX or UNIX derivative such as Linux). I can't even access their WiFi with my Windows XP-64 installed on my MacBook Pro. So, even though you pay for Verizon hotspot services, Verizon has locked out Apple users.

Nice touch don't you think? So, this is the rest of the story about why AT&T got the iPad. Verizon can't handle it.

What say you?

The Apple Tablet

The news is all abuzz about the unveiling of the Apple Tablet (iTablet, iSlate, iPad, or iSomethingoranother) on Wednesday. Rather than rehash all the rumors, this post will dwell on features I hope we don't see.

1. The price had better be lower than $1000. It will be marginal at $700, appealing at $500, and sensational under that price. If I'm going to pay $1000, I'll stick with a laptop. I can live with a keyboard and the extra features a laptop offers as a small tradeoff for sexiness.

2. The prices above need to be unsubsidized. While access to a 3G network is desirable, I'm at the point where I'm not going to spend any more on Internet access, even for tethering. The reason is simple: 1) I have Verizon FiOS at home and pay north of $40 a month for it; 2) I have a data plan on my iPhone and pay $30 a month for it; 3) and my wife has a data plan on her iPhone and pays $30 a month for it. That is a total of $100 a month for Internet access. If I'm on one, I'm not on the other. Therefore, I'm not getting my money's worth out of any of them now. I'm not going to pay any more. I am going to give up a service before I buy any additional access.

If the price is right, I would buy a tablet for use with Wi-Fi only. Most of the places I use my iPhone now has Wi-Fi (home, friend's homes, Starbuck's, McDonald's, Barnes & Noble, Original Pancake House, and various colleges and universities). It's sort of similar to the AT&T and Verizon dueling advertisements--for all the debate on who has the most coverage, the majority of my 3G use takes place within 40 miles of home and most of
My Internet access is through Wi-Fi. From my viewpoint, Clear offers 4G in our area and could replace all my Internet needs if Apple offered an iPhone/Tablet package on Clear--total cost $55 per month.

The point of this is, I'm an Apple fanboy, but only to a point. A $250 netbook with Wi-Fi access will meet my needs just fine. To get me to the Apple Tablet, it will have to be a compelling financial benefit. Otherwise the iPhone and a netbook is the way to go.

Your thoughts?

[Posted with iBlogger from my iPhone]

iPhone Preparing to go Mainstream

The Apple iPhone has managed to accomplish a number of things in the two years since it was announced and the 21 months since it went on sale. First, it has defied many an analyst by demonstrating that a new player in the mobile phone market can establish itself, carve out a segment of the market, and profitably compete. This may not sound like much, but remember that two years ago, analysts were debating whether Apple could succeed in the mobile phone market. The arguments ranged from lack of experience, to lack of support, to lack of features, to being limited by the exclusive agreement with AT&T. Many an analyst scoffed at the idea that Apple would be able to sell 10 million iPhones in its first full year (2009): They sold 13.7 million iPhones.

According to Apple, they have sold more than 30 million devices running the iPhone OS which includes both the iPodTouch and the iPhone. They have managed to do this despite lacking Flash, cut, copy, and paste, and MMS support offered by many competitors. They have managed to make significant inroads to the smartphone market during 2007 and 2008 even though they did not offer a 3G smartphone. They continue to take market share despite having a phone with questionable battery life. While many continue to decry the iPhone's lack of features, it is interesting to note how many phone manufacturers are doing their best to develop a competing product.

What analysts fail to realize (and I suspect to a certain extent Apple itself) is the iPhone has that unique ability to cut across demographics (much as the Nintendo Wii), to cut across geography (the iPhone can be found everywhere, whether licensed or not), and to cut across markets (it is a phone, a PDA, a smartphone, a netbook computer, and a device controller). Young and old are using it. Politicians, mothers, and geeks are using it. Salespeople and gamers are using it. Businesses and retired people are using it. It has single-handedly changed the view of the smartphone market.

With the iPhone 3.0 software and accompanying enhancements to its iPhone hardware, Apple is preparing to to move the device into mainstream acceptance. To do this, it must accomplish the following:

• Deliver a business-class product: With the 2.0 network and security improvements and the 3.0 applications capabilities, iPhone will rapidly become the device of choice for small and medium-sized businesses. With the introduction of external device controls (such as video recording equipment and keyboards) and additional application support (such as Documents-to-Go), the iPhone becomes a full function mobile office. Documents-to-Go support may well become the business killer app for the iPhone. This will occur this summer.

• Deliver a world-class gaming platform: With the peer-to-peer networking introduced with iPhone 3.0 software, the ability to purchase upgrades from within the application, expected graphics improvements with the next generation of device, and improvements to power management, the iPhone will truly become a world-class gaming device. When game makers develop applications that can interface across platforms (PCs, Macs, and iPhones), the killer game app will have arrived. This can be expected before the end of 2009.

• Deliver a world-class Internet browsing experience: This may be the weakest area for Apple. It is ironic that the Mobile Safari full-browser was one of the major selling points for the iPhone in its original release. The Safari browser has now become a weak point. The problem is Apple is trying to force a standard on the market and to date, the market is not buying. This is most evident with the lack of Adobe Flash support. Far too many Web sites use Flash for iPhone not to provide support. As a result, the iPhone is NOT a universal Internet Web browsing device because it cannot render a significant number of highly popular sites. Much like the lack of openness with the Apple operating systems in the 1980s, this lack of Flash support may become the Achilles heel for Apples mobile phone and services strategy. Even a poorly performing implementation would buy significant time.

You will notice that I did not include video support. The reason is that with external device support, the iPhone manufacturer ecosystem will provide that support in a small plug-and-play device that will 1) provide superior video to the built-in camera; 2) reduce battery drain on the iPhone; and 3) will provide a range of format up to and including HD. While video may be in a future iPhone, third-parties will provide superior implementations with Apple's blessing.

Thus, with the introduction of the 3.0 software, the iPhone finally goes mainstream. It will enable reporters to capture and file reports from the field, salespeople to capture orders real time in the customer's office, and anyone to work on-the-go. Oh yes, it will also make phone calls.

What have I missed? We would like to hear your ideas, comments, and input.

The Missing iPhones?

There is a lot of discussion among analysts and bloggers about the missing--some say up to 1 million--iPhones that cannot be accounted for through sales in the US, UK, Germany, and France. Explanations range from phones in the channel to phones that have been unlocked. I tend to think that most are primarily in the latter category. If you head over to The Apple Unofficial Web Site (TUAW) at http://www.tuaw.com/photos/iphones-around-the-world/, you will see 84 (at last count) of the iPhone being used around the world. For example, there are pictures of the iPhone on local wireless carriers in Russia, the Czech Republic, Iran, China, and Viet Nam, Brazil, and Mexico among many others. Of particular interest was one of the pictures from Viet Nam: You can count at least 30 iPhones on a wall in a wireless store. If this is any indication, a million iPhones could be spread across China alone.

With that said, I would think this creates a problem for Apple. They are missing out on recurring revenue from such unlocked phones. On the other hand, the carriers are getting they revenue, so they may be less likely to sign a restrictive deal with Apple. It will be interesting to see how this all pans out.

iPhone/Apple Goodies at MacWorld Expo

Well, since everyone else appears compelled to weigh in on what will be announced at the 2008 MacWorld Expo, I thought I might as well provide my prognostications to the pile appearing in the blogosphere. Herewith are my predictions:

1. An iPhone 16 Gb. This is logical allowing the top end of the iPhone line to be filled-in and perhaps allowing the 8 Gb to see a price drop, perhaps to $299. The phone will come standard with the 1.1.3 update. The 16 Gb iPhone will not have a replaceable battery.
   
2. No iPhone 3G. If one is introduced, it will be introduced as debuting with 3G service to Japan or a similar announcement. This will place the machine coming to market in the Spring at the earliest, Summer more likely, or Fall (before the Christmas rush) as the most likely. It also gives Apple time to determine whether to put it at a higher price point, or to retire the 8 Gb model. Either way, there will be both a 3G and a 2.5G model on the market at the same time. If the 3G model is introduced, it will not have a replaceable battery.
   
3. Early introduction of the SDK along with the announcements of a number of new applications immediately available through iTunes (new release 7.7). I would expect that many of these applications are available from installer.app developers (let's face it, some of this stuff is great, especially the games, and they pose no threat to Apple).
4. Flash availability on the iPhone. There doesn't seem to be much discussion of this topic anymore, but it would be an easy addition that would significantly extend the functionality of Safari considering how many sites use Flash. It would also be a logical early SDK-developed tool.
5. iPhone email Exchange compatibility. This one will come from either Microsoft or one of the many companies providing these capabilities to Palm and others today. Again, this is a logical SDK-developed tool.
6. Update 1.1.3 (or perhaps a 1.2.0) that will incorporate the teasers seen in the leaked video of the release as well as much-needed enhancements. Among this are: a) icon management as seen in the video; b) Google map location as seen in the video; c) custom pin placement as seen in the video; d) bookmark as icon application on the springboard as seen in the video; e) copy-and-paste; and f) flash-disk storage.
7. Enhancements to the Wi-Fi iTunes store that will enable podcasts and videos to be downloaded wirelessly.
8. Among the videos that will be available, Apple will announce its agreement to carry movie rentals--they will be available through the Wi-Fi store or iTunes directly to a home machine or a souped-up AppleTV.
9. Joint announcements by Yahoo!, Google, and perhaps others of significant extensions of their Web sites to accommodate the iPhone format. These would go far beyond what has been announced by Yahoo! and Google recently. Indeed, they may take the form of additional custom applications available as a result of the SDK.
   

These latter predictions are the result of this being Apple's show, but they will not want to leave out the content providers that make the iPhone so functional. Therefore, they will be involved in some type of joint presentation. Then there are the reach predictions. Not sure whether they are realistic at this time, but I would predict they are coming:

1. Announcement of an agreement enabling extended Wi-Fi iTunes store usage at airports, certain hotel chains, and perhaps additional business establishments. The latter would be tied to Apple's existing contracts with AT&T, O2, Deutche Telekom, and Orange.
2. Joint announcement of the availability of the 3G iPhone along with AT&T's announcement of rapid expansion of its 3G network.

Those are my thoughts. What do you think I have wrong. What have I left out?