iPad Prelaunch Thoughts

It has a very limited suite of applications. Just about everything you can do on it, you can do on today's smartphones or computers. The operating system is closed and Apple will only allow what it wants to be installed on the device. It doesn't have a physical keyboard. It's too expensive for what you get--there are many alternatives for less money.

Talking about the iPad? No, these are the statements made about the iPhone prior to its launch. Indeed, many analysts believed Apple was setting itself up for failure by declaring that the company would capture 1% of the smartphone market within 18 months. As they say, the rest is history.

The lesson to be learned from this is to never underestimate Apple. How popular will the iPad be? No one knows--not even Apple. Keep in mind, the iPhone's least used application is the phone. The iPhone ushered into the market the first truly portable omni-communications device. I will predict the iPad will accomplish no less.

Sure, it may take two or three generations of the machine. But remember, in Internet time you are only talkining 24-36 months. Remember, the iPod did not exist eight years ago and the iPhone did not exist three years ago. Within that time frame, Apple will have probably doubled the storage capacity, doubled the processing speed, added significantly to the battery life, added a camera (front-facing for video chats), slightly increased the screen size, improved the screen resolution, all without making it any heavier. You will get all this at the same or less cost. Add to this reality, virtually every major computer maker (and many a wireless phone maker) will have a similar competing knockoff. The iPad is going to fail--hardly.

With all that said, the true innovation and success of the iPad will rest with those who made the iPhone successful--the gazillions of iPad application developers. This hearty group will find ways to use the iPad that even Steve Jobs did not imagine. They will be the device of choice in schools because they are small and can carry a student's books much easier than a backpack. They will be data collection devices for students, scientists, and engineers. They will be the real estate agent's most prized possession allowing instant access to neighborhood demographics, comparison house prices, and virtual house walk-throughs. They will be the nurse and doctor's link to patient records and information input. They will be the insurance agent's instrument of choice for both sales and claims input. They will become a "world-computer," because of the relatively small size, low energy demands, long battery life, and storage capacity. Oh, and they will be a great personal entertainment device.

This success is not dependent on Apple. It is dependent on the application developers who will see all the possibilities of the device. You see, that is what most people missed about the iPhone--it is the applications that will sell the device.

[Posted with iBlogger from my iPhone]

iPad Naysayers

I find it interesting the amount of disappointent many people have expressed about the forthcoming iPad digital tablet. The interesting part is the people expressing the disappointment, not the disappointment itself. Let me explain.

There are and always will be technophobes and Luddites who will have nothing good to say about any new technological widget. You know the ones, they tell how much they hate technology because they don't have phones or computers to send you their concern. These aren't the people who surprised me.

I'm talking about the people such as Bill Gates. He should know better. His concern is that the iPad does not have a physical keyboard or stylus input. This is from the guy who helped change computing from an enterprise to a personal activity. Bill, you are dating yourself. You're becoming a modern day Luddite. You and Steve Ballmer--iPod what's it good for; iTunes who is going to buy music at $.99 a song; and iPhone, no keys, no success. You guys just don't get it.

iPad is going to be a success for the simple reason that people don't know what it's good for. It is the rebirth of the hobbiest home computer. People will play with it and start using it for things that were never envisioned. Just look at the App Store. Who envisioned the iPhone as an important geology repository and reference tool? Who envisioned it as a news reporting tool completed with video editing capabilities?

Getting away from Apple for a moment, look at Twitter: Who envisioned it as a political tool for change? Who envisioned it as a live stream news feed?

Take YouTube. Who envisioned it as a stand-alone video entertainment service rather than an amateur video posting service? Who envisioned it as a political messaging tool? Who envisioned it as an important video news source?

Needless to say, the iPad will be hugely successful and it will be successful for reasons other than those Steve Jobs and his imagination shop originally intended. As Om Malik noted, the iPad is a blank slate limited only by our imaginations.

What say you?

[Posted with iBlogger from my iPhone]

The Apple Tablet

The news is all abuzz about the unveiling of the Apple Tablet (iTablet, iSlate, iPad, or iSomethingoranother) on Wednesday. Rather than rehash all the rumors, this post will dwell on features I hope we don't see.

1. The price had better be lower than $1000. It will be marginal at $700, appealing at $500, and sensational under that price. If I'm going to pay $1000, I'll stick with a laptop. I can live with a keyboard and the extra features a laptop offers as a small tradeoff for sexiness.

2. The prices above need to be unsubsidized. While access to a 3G network is desirable, I'm at the point where I'm not going to spend any more on Internet access, even for tethering. The reason is simple: 1) I have Verizon FiOS at home and pay north of $40 a month for it; 2) I have a data plan on my iPhone and pay $30 a month for it; 3) and my wife has a data plan on her iPhone and pays $30 a month for it. That is a total of $100 a month for Internet access. If I'm on one, I'm not on the other. Therefore, I'm not getting my money's worth out of any of them now. I'm not going to pay any more. I am going to give up a service before I buy any additional access.

If the price is right, I would buy a tablet for use with Wi-Fi only. Most of the places I use my iPhone now has Wi-Fi (home, friend's homes, Starbuck's, McDonald's, Barnes & Noble, Original Pancake House, and various colleges and universities). It's sort of similar to the AT&T and Verizon dueling advertisements--for all the debate on who has the most coverage, the majority of my 3G use takes place within 40 miles of home and most of
My Internet access is through Wi-Fi. From my viewpoint, Clear offers 4G in our area and could replace all my Internet needs if Apple offered an iPhone/Tablet package on Clear--total cost $55 per month.

The point of this is, I'm an Apple fanboy, but only to a point. A $250 netbook with Wi-Fi access will meet my needs just fine. To get me to the Apple Tablet, it will have to be a compelling financial benefit. Otherwise the iPhone and a netbook is the way to go.

Your thoughts?

[Posted with iBlogger from my iPhone]

iPhone/Apple Goodies at MacWorld Expo

Well, since everyone else appears compelled to weigh in on what will be announced at the 2008 MacWorld Expo, I thought I might as well provide my prognostications to the pile appearing in the blogosphere. Herewith are my predictions:

1. An iPhone 16 Gb. This is logical allowing the top end of the iPhone line to be filled-in and perhaps allowing the 8 Gb to see a price drop, perhaps to $299. The phone will come standard with the 1.1.3 update. The 16 Gb iPhone will not have a replaceable battery.
   
2. No iPhone 3G. If one is introduced, it will be introduced as debuting with 3G service to Japan or a similar announcement. This will place the machine coming to market in the Spring at the earliest, Summer more likely, or Fall (before the Christmas rush) as the most likely. It also gives Apple time to determine whether to put it at a higher price point, or to retire the 8 Gb model. Either way, there will be both a 3G and a 2.5G model on the market at the same time. If the 3G model is introduced, it will not have a replaceable battery.
   
3. Early introduction of the SDK along with the announcements of a number of new applications immediately available through iTunes (new release 7.7). I would expect that many of these applications are available from installer.app developers (let's face it, some of this stuff is great, especially the games, and they pose no threat to Apple).
4. Flash availability on the iPhone. There doesn't seem to be much discussion of this topic anymore, but it would be an easy addition that would significantly extend the functionality of Safari considering how many sites use Flash. It would also be a logical early SDK-developed tool.
5. iPhone email Exchange compatibility. This one will come from either Microsoft or one of the many companies providing these capabilities to Palm and others today. Again, this is a logical SDK-developed tool.
6. Update 1.1.3 (or perhaps a 1.2.0) that will incorporate the teasers seen in the leaked video of the release as well as much-needed enhancements. Among this are: a) icon management as seen in the video; b) Google map location as seen in the video; c) custom pin placement as seen in the video; d) bookmark as icon application on the springboard as seen in the video; e) copy-and-paste; and f) flash-disk storage.
7. Enhancements to the Wi-Fi iTunes store that will enable podcasts and videos to be downloaded wirelessly.
8. Among the videos that will be available, Apple will announce its agreement to carry movie rentals--they will be available through the Wi-Fi store or iTunes directly to a home machine or a souped-up AppleTV.
9. Joint announcements by Yahoo!, Google, and perhaps others of significant extensions of their Web sites to accommodate the iPhone format. These would go far beyond what has been announced by Yahoo! and Google recently. Indeed, they may take the form of additional custom applications available as a result of the SDK.
   

These latter predictions are the result of this being Apple's show, but they will not want to leave out the content providers that make the iPhone so functional. Therefore, they will be involved in some type of joint presentation. Then there are the reach predictions. Not sure whether they are realistic at this time, but I would predict they are coming:

1. Announcement of an agreement enabling extended Wi-Fi iTunes store usage at airports, certain hotel chains, and perhaps additional business establishments. The latter would be tied to Apple's existing contracts with AT&T, O2, Deutche Telekom, and Orange.
2. Joint announcement of the availability of the 3G iPhone along with AT&T's announcement of rapid expansion of its 3G network.

Those are my thoughts. What do you think I have wrong. What have I left out?