It has a very limited suite of applications. Just about everything you can do on it, you can do on today's smartphones or computers. The operating system is closed and Apple will only allow what it wants to be installed on the device. It doesn't have a physical keyboard. It's too expensive for what you get--there are many alternatives for less money.
Talking about the iPad? No, these are the statements made about the iPhone prior to its launch. Indeed, many analysts believed Apple was setting itself up for failure by declaring that the company would capture 1% of the smartphone market within 18 months. As they say, the rest is history.
The lesson to be learned from this is to never underestimate Apple. How popular will the iPad be? No one knows--not even Apple. Keep in mind, the iPhone's least used application is the phone. The iPhone ushered into the market the first truly portable omni-communications device. I will predict the iPad will accomplish no less.
Sure, it may take two or three generations of the machine. But remember, in Internet time you are only talkining 24-36 months. Remember, the iPod did not exist eight years ago and the iPhone did not exist three years ago. Within that time frame, Apple will have probably doubled the storage capacity, doubled the processing speed, added significantly to the battery life, added a camera (front-facing for video chats), slightly increased the screen size, improved the screen resolution, all without making it any heavier. You will get all this at the same or less cost. Add to this reality, virtually every major computer maker (and many a wireless phone maker) will have a similar competing knockoff. The iPad is going to fail--hardly.
With all that said, the true innovation and success of the iPad will rest with those who made the iPhone successful--the gazillions of iPad application developers. This hearty group will find ways to use the iPad that even Steve Jobs did not imagine. They will be the device of choice in schools because they are small and can carry a student's books much easier than a backpack. They will be data collection devices for students, scientists, and engineers. They will be the real estate agent's most prized possession allowing instant access to neighborhood demographics, comparison house prices, and virtual house walk-throughs. They will be the nurse and doctor's link to patient records and information input. They will be the insurance agent's instrument of choice for both sales and claims input. They will become a "world-computer," because of the relatively small size, low energy demands, long battery life, and storage capacity. Oh, and they will be a great personal entertainment device.
This success is not dependent on Apple. It is dependent on the application developers who will see all the possibilities of the device. You see, that is what most people missed about the iPhone--it is the applications that will sell the device.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment